Geophysical Research Letters | Moravec et al. [2019]
We present a 250‐year (1766–2015) inventory of European meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts derived from ensemble simulations of the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). The inventory of droughts takes into account an ensemble of 100 simulations from the hydrological model, allowing for assessment of how different meteorological forcing and model parameterizations affect a drought ranking. For the most extreme droughts, the variability in the ranking of drought events is low, while for the years with moderate precipitation deficits, the variability increases. Despite the underlying uncertainties, our drought inventory shows increased recurrence of soil moisture droughts in the Mediterranean and declining spatial extent of hydrological drought in Central Europe over the last three decades.
Full article can be found here.
Water & Climate 